NEAR ETF: Does Bitwise's $155 NEAR Target Add Up?
Bitwise launched the first US spot NEAR ETF. Here is who built NEAR, what NEAR Intents does, and what the $155 base case and $1.63 bear case actually assume.
Key takeaways
- Bitwise listed the first US spot NEAR ETF on September 29, 2026, with a 0.75% annual fee and staking inside the fund.
- The viral $155 figure is Bitwise's 2030 base case, and the same report includes a bear case of about $1.63 that many posts leave out.
- The base case assumes 328 million AI agents transacting on NEAR, which would need the network's total value to grow nearly 40 times from about $6.4 billion.
- Owning the ETF means owning fund shares, not NEAR you can move or use on-chain.
- Decide in advance what you would do if a coin doubled or halved, and know who holds the keys to it.
A single number has been circulating on crypto social media: one NEAR equals $155. It comes from a research report by Bitwise, the same firm that launched the first spot NEAR ETF in the US on September 29, 2026. One post about it alone drew more than 450,000 views, according to the video.
The Bullrunners video walks through where NEAR came from, what the network actually does, why a Wall Street fund manager is backing it, and what the $155 figure really requires. It also points out the part most posts skip: the same report contains a bear case far below today’s price.
Who founded NEAR Protocol?
NEAR was co-founded by Illia Polosukhin, one of the eight authors of “Attention Is All You Need”, a 2017 Google research paper. That paper introduced the transformer, the “T” in ChatGPT (generative pre-trained transformer). Most large AI chatbots are built on the idea.
In an interview played in the video, Polosukhin described building a quick prototype one afternoon at his desk, translating English to French, and confirmed it was “supposedly” the first transformer. The video also shows Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang calling him on stage at a 2024 panel for the paper’s authors.
Polosukhin left Google in 2017 to co-found NEAR.ai, a company trying to teach computers to write code.
Why was NEAR built as a blockchain?
NEAR became a blockchain because paying students was too hard. NEAR.ai relied on computer science students in China, Eastern Europe and elsewhere to do small tasks for training data. Some had no bank accounts, and paying people in China from a US company was difficult.
The team looked at crypto as a global payment network, but in 2018 it was, in Polosukhin’s words, clunky, expensive and unable to scale. Paying a student on Ethereum could cost more in fees than the payment itself. So the team built its own chain, which went live in 2020.
Two design choices stood out:
- Readable account names. An account can be a name like “rory.near” instead of a long string of characters.
- Sharding. The network is split into pieces called shards that run side by side, so it can add users without slowing down.
In March 2024, Polosukhin said NEAR had the most users in the blockchain space, with millions of daily users who don’t know they are using a blockchain. The video stresses that this is his claim.
Has NEAR had a smooth ride?
No. NEAR rallied in the 2021 boom and peaked in early 2022, at an all-time high of about $20 in January 2022. It then fell with the wider market.
In January 2024, the NEAR Foundation, the non-profit that supports the network, cut about 40% of its staff (35 people), mostly in marketing, business development and community roles. It said its treasury still held about $285 million in cash.
As AI took off, Polosukhin steered NEAR back toward it, promoting what he calls user-owned AI: assistants that work for the user rather than for a large tech company selling their attention.
What do NEAR Intents and chain signatures do?
NEAR Intents let you say what you want and have the network work out how to get it. In plain terms: “I have this coin, I want that coin.” Traders and bots then compete to offer the best deal across chains, and the coins land in your own wallet without juggling bridges and apps.
At Solana’s Breakpoint conference in December 2025, Polosukhin said intents volume had been doubling monthly and had crossed $3.6 billion in the prior 30 days. By the end of September 2026, NEAR said intents had handled more than $32 billion in total, up from under $1 billion when Bitwise first wrote its case.
Chain signatures allow one NEAR account to sign transactions on other chains, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. The pitch is one account controlling assets on many chains.
Polosukhin also noted that most users end up leaving their coins on centralized exchanges. That point becomes relevant to the self-check later in this article.
What is the Bitwise NEAR ETF?
The Bitwise NEAR ETF is the first US spot NEAR ETF, listed on the NYSE Arca market on September 29, 2026. Key details from the video:
| Feature | Detail |
|---|---|
| Annual fee | 0.75% |
| Staking | Bitwise stakes NEAR inside the fund |
| Staking rewards kept by fund | One third |
| Early demand | Over $50 million in net inflows in the first few days |
| What you own | Shares in the fund, not NEAR |
Bitwise’s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, described NEAR on a podcast as an easy-to-use network with intents and an “AI catalyst” on top, calling it a project with two mega trends behind it. The video reminds viewers this is his firm’s own fund.
Buying the ETF means a custodian holds the coins. There is no wallet or keys to manage, but you cannot move the NEAR or use it on-chain.
Does the $155 NEAR target add up?
The $155 figure is a modeled scenario, not a forecast anyone can rely on. It comes from a Bitwise research report written by its team including Matt Hougan, first published in 2025. It sets out three cases for 2030:
| Case | 2030 price per NEAR |
|---|---|
| Bear | About $1.63 |
| Base | About $155.85 |
| Max | About $563 |
The base case rests on Polosukhin’s thesis that “AI is the front end, blockchain is the back end”: AI agents will book flights, pay hotels and swap currencies for us, with NEAR as the rails. The model assumes:
- 328 million AI agents using NEAR by 2030.
- Each doing 1,000 transactions a year at $5 each.
- NEAR taking a 0.3% cut of that flow.
- The market valuing the network at 50 times that revenue.
That works out to roughly $250 billion for the whole network. In early October 2026, CoinGecko put NEAR’s total value at about $6.4 billion, so the base case needs growth of nearly 40 times.
The video lists three things that all have to happen:
- AI agents must take off and spend real money for people.
- Enough of them must choose NEAR over other chains and existing bank and card systems.
- That activity must translate into value for the coin.
The bear case describes what happens if intents become just a handy swap tool and the agent economy never runs on NEAR. For context, one trader quoted in the video said they would be happy just to see the old $20 high again.
What risks should NEAR holders know about?
The video flags two recent events.
Supply changes. NEAR issues new coins each year, mostly to reward validators who secure the network. In October 2025, the maximum inflation rate was cut from 5% to 2.5% a year. Lower new supply is usually seen as positive for holders, but the community vote won majority support without reaching the required two-thirds. The change took effect once enough validators upgraded their software, which upset some community members.
An exploit. On October 1, 2026, someone used a bug in a deposit and withdrawal tool connected to NEAR Intents to take about $3.8 million. NEAR Intents promised to cover affected users and gave the person 48 hours. The full amount was returned the next day. The video calls it a good ending, but a reminder that new technology can break.
A two-question check for any coin you hold
The video offers a quick self-check. Open the app where your NEAR, or any coin, is stored and answer:
- Who actually holds the keys: you or the company?
- If this coin doubled or halved, what would you do?
If you cannot answer both in one sentence, the video argues, you have a hope rather than a plan. Holding long-term can work, but it helps to set your numbers before the price moves, not on the day of a headline.
What to watch next
The base case depends on things that can be tracked over time. Watch NEAR Intents volume against the $32 billion milestone, ETF inflows after the launch weeks, and any real evidence of AI agents transacting on NEAR rather than elsewhere. Keep the network’s total value in view against the roughly $250 billion the base case needs. The video’s own verdict: the founder story is real and checkable and the technology is serious, but the $155 number depends on a future that has not arrived yet.
Frequently asked questions
When did the first NEAR ETF launch?
According to the video, Bitwise listed the Bitwise NEAR ETF on the New York Stock Exchange's Arca market on September 29, 2026. It was described as the first spot NEAR ETF in America.
Where does the $155 NEAR price target come from?
It comes from a Bitwise research report first published in 2025. Its 2030 base case is about $155.85, alongside a max case of about $563 and a bear case of about $1.63.
Who founded NEAR Protocol?
NEAR was co-founded by Illia Polosukhin, one of the eight authors of the 2017 Google paper 'Attention Is All You Need', which introduced the transformer behind tools like ChatGPT.
What are NEAR Intents?
An intent lets a user state the outcome they want, such as swapping one coin for another, and traders and bots compete to fill it across chains. By the end of September 2026, NEAR said intents had handled more than $32 billion in total volume.
Do you own NEAR if you buy the Bitwise NEAR ETF?
No. You own shares in a fund held in a brokerage account, and a custodian holds the coins. You cannot move them to a wallet, and the fund takes a 0.75% yearly fee plus a third of staking rewards.
Education and commentary only, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile and you can lose money. Do your own research and speak to a qualified advisor before making investment decisions. Figures and quotes are as reported in the video on October 11, 2026 and may have changed since.
