XRP and Ripple Swell Week: A Plan for the Sell-the-News Trap
Ripple's Swell and a Fed decision land in the same week. Here is a four-stage event plan for XRP holders, one sizing question and a five-line checklist.
Key takeaways
- Ripple's Swell runs October 27 to 29 in New York, and the US Federal Reserve rate decision falls on October 28, the middle day.
- An XRP Ledger bug-fix package planned for October 23 was pushed to November after validator support briefly dipped below the 29 votes it needs, according to CoinDesk.
- XRP Ledger lending was not live. As of mid-October, lending had 19 validator votes and vaults had 21, and each needs 29.
- Good news can still come with a falling price, because prices move on expectations versus what actually happens.
- The video's core test before any big event: if you had no position, would you open this exact position today at this size?
Ripple’s Swell conference runs October 27 to 29 in New York, and the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision lands on October 28, in the middle of it. A Bullrunners video argues that this crowded week is where XRP holders tend to make rushed decisions. It lays out a four-stage plan for handling a possible “sell the news” drop.
The video makes no prediction about what Ripple will announce or where XRP will trade. Its point is that a written plan matters more than the headlines. Events like Swell work on mood, and mood is what leads people to chase green candles, panic-sell dips or take on leverage they don’t need.
What is on the XRP calendar for Swell week?
The Swell week calendar has three dates that matter, according to the video. The video’s first step is to write them down in advance, because most panic comes from dates you didn’t see coming.
- Friday, October 23 (now delayed): a package of XRP Ledger bug fixes was scheduled to switch on at around 09:34 UTC. When the video was recorded, it had exactly 29 validator votes, the minimum required. The video warned that if one validator withdrew support, the clock would restart. That is what happened. CoinDesk reported on October 22 that support fell to 26 of 35 validators for about two hours. That dip reset the two-week countdown and pushed the fix, known as fixCleanup3_4_0, to November. Later reports put support back at 31 of 35.
- Tuesday, October 27 to Thursday, October 29: Swell in New York. Brad Garlinghouse opens day one. Monica Long is on the main stage with Robinhood. David Schwartz talks about what’s next for the XRP Ledger, and the video says there is a session on AI agents moving money.
- Wednesday, October 28: the US Federal Reserve rate decision.
That puts a Ripple event and a Fed decision within the same 48 hours. The video says this is not a prediction, just a very busy week.
Is XRP Ledger lending live?
XRP Ledger lending is not live. The delayed bug-fix package partly repairs the new lending system, but the lending system itself has not been switched on.
Validators approve upgrades to the ledger, called amendments, by voting. An amendment needs support from 29 of the 35 default trusted validators, held for two weeks. As of mid-October, the lending amendment had 19 votes and the vaults amendment had 21, according to the video. On October 19, CoinDesk reported that even if both reached 29 votes that day, lending could not go live before early November. That was the earliest possible date, not a forecast, and it came before the bug fix itself slipped to November. Any thumbnail claiming “XRP lending is live” during Swell week would be wrong.
What was the XRP market mood before Swell?
The market mood before Swell was cautious, based on the figures in the video:
| Measure | Figure cited in the video |
|---|---|
| XRP price at recording | About $1.32 |
| Weekly change | Down about 3% |
| Distance from all-time high | Roughly 65% below |
| Spot XRP ETF flows | First weekly outflow in 3 months ($1.84 million), ending a 13-week inflow streak |
| XRP held on exchanges (CryptoQuant) | About 11.8 billion, near a one-year high |
The video stresses that none of this predicts what happens next. It only shows the mood, and the mood is what an event like Swell plays on.
How does the video handle the build-up before Swell?
The build-up is where the trap gets set, according to the video. Countdowns, “big announcement” posts and claims that insiders know something all push the same feeling: get in before the event or miss out. The host follows three rules instead:
- The video’s first rule: add nothing you wouldn’t be happy holding if the news is boring. A position that only makes sense because of a rumor is a bet, not a position.
- The second rule: no new leverage into an event. The video says events widen the price range in both directions, and leverage can turn a normal wobble into a liquidation. It cites reports of about 25.7 million in XRP long liquidations in a single stretch earlier in October. Outside reports put that figure at about $25.7 million on Binance. The host calls that what it looks like when traders are leveraged into a move that doesn’t come. Bullrunners has covered what leveraged products teach about liquidations in more depth.
- The third rule: write down what would change your mind before the event. The host’s reasoning is that after the event, your brain will rewrite the story to fit whatever you did.
The video also says it won’t guess the announcements. Nobody outside Ripple knows what is coming, and the host says anyone who claims to know is selling something.
What are the three Swell scenarios for XRP?
The video maps the announcement days onto three scenarios and suggests planning for each one before the event starts.
Scenario A: good news, price goes up. The mistake here is chasing: you see green, feel late and buy the top of the candle. The host’s rule is that if you didn’t plan to buy at that level before the event, you don’t buy it mid-event. The video says some holders decide in advance to take a little off into strength, while others decide to do nothing. It calls both fine. Deciding in the moment is not.
Scenario B: good news, price goes down. This is the sell-the-news trap, and it confuses people because it feels illogical. The video explains that prices move on expectations versus reality. If many people bought the rumor, some will sell the news. That is profit-taking, not a verdict on Ripple. The trap is panic-selling a dip you could have seen coming. Another trap is dipping into money set aside for something else because XRP now looks cheap. Bullrunners explains this pattern further in why XRP can drop after good news.
Scenario C: nothing for XRP. The video calls this the scenario nobody plans for. Swell is a business conference, and much of what is announced could concern RLUSD, Ripple Prime, custody or payments. That is Ripple the company. XRP holders own the asset, not shares in Ripple, so “Ripple had a great Swell” and “XRP went up” are different statements. The gap is covered in why a Ripple win isn’t automatically an XRP win. In this scenario, the video says boredom is the risk, because bored holders often jump into something else, usually something worse.
The one question to ask before any big event
The video’s core test is this: if I had no position right now, would I open this exact position today, at this size?
If the answer is yes, the host holds to the plan. If the answer is no, the host says you have learned something about your sizing, not about the news. Any adjustment should then be made calmly and by your own rules, not by what social media is saying.
What to review after Swell
The video describes the review, from Friday, October 30 onward, as the step almost nobody does. It is also the one that actually improves your process. The video suggests three checks:
- What did I do versus what I wrote down? Judge your actions, not the price.
- What actually changed for XRP? Separate Ripple headlines from things you can track. Did the lending amendments reach 29 votes? Did spot XRP ETF flows turn back to inflows?
- Is my plan still right for my holdings? If one event cost you sleep, the video says your position may be too big for you. It frames that as a sizing problem, not a market problem, and one that can be fixed.
The one-screen Swell event plan
The video closes with a five-line plan, meant to be filled in before an event starts rather than on the day:
- The dates: the video listed October 23 for the ledger fix, which has since moved to November. October 27 to 29, Swell. October 28, the Fed decision.
- If the price jumps, I will ______.
- If the price drops, I will ______.
- If nothing happens, I will ______.
- I’ll only change my mind if ______.
The same structure works for any scheduled event, not just Swell. For a deeper version aimed at sharp declines, see the Bullrunners guide on what to do if XRP drops 30%.
What to watch next
After Swell, the video points to facts over feelings. Check when the delayed XRP Ledger bug-fix package actually activates in November. Then check whether the lending and vaults amendments reach the 29 validator votes they need. Under CoinDesk’s reporting, lending could not go live before early November even in the best case. Treat any claim that lending is live as unconfirmed until the votes and activation can be checked. Watch whether spot XRP ETF flows return to inflows after their first weekly outflow in three months. Note how much of the Swell news concerns Ripple’s business compared with the XRP Ledger itself. Then compare your actions during the week with the plan you wrote before it started.
Frequently asked questions
When is Ripple Swell 2026?
Swell runs Tuesday, October 27 to Thursday, October 29 in New York. According to the video, Brad Garlinghouse opens day one, Monica Long appears on the main stage with Robinhood, and David Schwartz talks about what's next for the XRP Ledger.
Is XRP Ledger lending live?
No. As of mid-October, the lending amendment had 19 validator votes and the vaults amendment had 21, and both need 29. CoinDesk reported that even if both reached 29 at that point, lending could not go live before early November. A related bug-fix package has since been delayed to November.
Did the October 23 XRP Ledger fix activate?
No. CoinDesk reported on October 22 that validator support fell to 26 of 35 for about two hours, which restarted the two-week countdown and pushed the fix to November. Later reports said support had recovered to 31 of 35.
Does good news for Ripple mean good news for XRP?
Not automatically. The video notes that much of what Swell covers may concern Ripple the company, such as RLUSD, Ripple Prime, custody and payments. XRP holders own the asset, not shares in Ripple.
Why does the video warn against leverage before a big crypto event?
The video says events widen price swings in both directions, and leverage can turn a normal wobble into a liquidation. It cites reports of about 25.7 million in XRP long liquidations earlier in October. Outside reports put that at about $25.7 million on Binance.
Full video transcript
From the video's captions, lightly formatted. Captions can mishear names and numbers, so check figures against the article above.
Ripple's Swell starts on Tuesday, so if XRP sells the news, do you really know what you're doing? Because that's the Swell week trap, and today I'm giving you my plan for it stage by stage. Plus, the one question I ask before every big event, and at the end, a one-screen event plan that you can screenshot and save on your device. Now, quick disclaimer, education and commentary only, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile and you can lose money, but let's jump straight into it.
[music]
All right, bull runners, welcome back to the video. We're going to go straight ahead with stage one. Before anything happens, I write down the calendar, because most panic comes from dates you didn't see coming. So, here's what's actually on it. Friday, the 23rd, a package of bug fixes for the XRP ledger is on course to switch on around 9:34 UTC.
It has exactly 29 validator votes, the minimum it needs. So, if one validator pulls support, the clock restarts. But here's the detail most people will miss. That fix partly repairs the new lending system, but the lending system itself is not switched on. It's sitting on 19 votes.
The vaults are on 21, and both need 29. So, CoinDesk reports that even if both hit 29 today, lending couldn't go live before early November. So, if you see a thumbnail this week screaming XRP lending is live, now you know. Then, Tuesday, the 27th to Thursday, the 29th, Swell in New York. Brad Garlinghouse opens day one.
Monica Long is on the main stage with Robinhood. David Schwartz is talking about what's next for the XRP ledger. There's even a session on AI agents moving money. And right in the middle of it, Wednesday, the 28th, the US Federal Reserve rate decision. So, that's a Ripple event and a Fed decision in the same 48 hours.
Now, that's not a prediction, it's just a very busy week. And busy weeks are where people make rushed decisions. And if you appreciate me making this type of content, let me know by gently tapping that like button and hitting subscribe plus the bell to get notified of our next content. Now, for context, XRP is around $1.32 as I record this. That's down about 3% on the week and roughly 65% below its all-time high.
Spot XRP ETFs just had their first weekly outflow in 3 months. A small $1.84 million, but it ended a 13-week streak. And according to CryptoQuant, XRP sitting on exchanges is nearly a year high, about 11.8 billion. Now, none of that tells you what happens next. It just tells you the mood.
And mood is exactly what an event like Swell plays with. Just quickly, if you're holding $50,000 or more and want help putting this into a proper system, click the first link in the description, but I'm going to break that down more later. Let's go straight to stage two, the build-up. Now, this is the weekend before, and this is where the trap gets set. You've seen how it goes.
Countdowns, huge announcement coming, insiders know, and the feeling it creates is simple. If I'm not in before Tuesday, I'll miss it. But here's what I do instead. Three things. One, I don't add anything I wouldn't be happy in holding if the news is boring.
If a position only makes sense because of a rumor, it's not a position, it's a bet and you're gambling. Two, no new leverage into an event. Events widen the range both ways, and leverage is how a normal wobble turns into a liquidation. Earlier this month, reports put XRP long liquidations at around 25.7 million in a single stretch. And that's what it looks like when people are leveraged into a move that doesn't come.
Three, I write down what would make me change my mind before the event in writing, because after the event, your brain will rewrite the story to fit whatever you did. And notice what I'm not doing. I'm not guessing the announcement because nobody outside Ripple knows what's coming and anyone telling you they do is selling you something. But stay with me because stage three is where I watch people hand money back even when the news is good. And if you want a trader's view on XRP without the hype, subscribe and turn on notifications.
I'm going to be breaking these events down as they happen. Stage three, the announcement days, Tuesday to Thursday. There are really only three ways this goes and I want to plan for each one before it starts. Scenario A, good news and the price goes up. The mistake here is chasing.
You see green, you feel late, you buy the top of the candle. My rule is simple, if I didn't plan to buy at that point before the event, I don't buy it in the middle of the event. If I'm already holding, I follow what I wrote in stage two. Now some people decide in advance to take a little off into strength. Some people decide to do nothing.
Both are fine. What's not fine is deciding in the moment. Scenario B is good news but the price goes down. That is the sell the news trap and it messes with people the most because it feels illogical. They announce something big, why is it falling?
But here's how I think about it. Price moves on expectation versus reality. If lots of people bought the rumor, some of them sell the news but that's not a verdict on Ripple. If people taking money off the table, the trap is panic selling a dip you could have seen coming or grabbing money you'd set aside for something else because it's now cheap. And this is exactly where the one question comes in.
But I'll give you that in two a second. Let's just complete the scenarios with scenario C. Nothing for XRP. And this is the one nobody plans for. Swell is a business conference.
A lot of what gets announced could be about RLUSD, Ripple Prime, custody, payments. That's Ripple the company. And if you hold XRP, you hold the asset not shares in Ripple. So Ripple had a great swell when XRP went up are two different sentences. If that happens, boredom is the risk and people get bored and then they'll jump into something else, usually something worse.
So, the one question before any big event I ask myself is this. If I had no position right now, would I open this exact position today at this size? If the answer is yes, then I hold my plan. If the answer is no, I've just learned something about my sizing, not about the news. [music] And that's when I would adjust calmly by my rules, not by the timeline. And this is usually where people realize they don't actually have a system.
They've got coins, they've got opinions, but no written rules for events, for drops, or for taking anything off. Mitchell and member put it like this on Trustpilot. The depth of available learnings in the library is very good. James, my coach, was very good and patient. And if you have crypto that adds up to $50,000 or more, XRP and everything else, use that top link in the description to go through to one of our expert team advisers who will go through your entire portfolio and tell you if you are set or not and give you the advice you need to be ready.
The aim is for you to become your own bank and operate from a repeatable system instead of holding and hoping. So, click that top link in the description, watch the free training, and if it makes sense for where you are, book a strategy call. Now, stage four, after. Friday the 30th onwards, this is the bit almost nobody does and it's where you actually get better. Free checks.
One, what did I do versus what I wrote down, not what price did, what I did. Two, what actually changed for XRP? Split the Ripple headlines from the things you can track. Do the lending amendments get to 29 votes? Do ETF flows turn back to inflows?
Those are facts, not vibes. Three, is my plan still right for my bag? If one event made you lose sleep, your position might be too big for you. That's not a market problem, that's just a sizing problem. But, good news, it is fixable.
So, let's do a quick recap. Before, write the calendar, build up, no rumor bias, no new leverage, write down what changes your mind. Announcement days, a plan for up, down, and nothing. And the one question, would I open this position today at this size? After, review what you did, not what price did.
And here's the bonus I promised, so take get your phone out or screenshot this as it appears. Line one, the dates. 23rd, the fix. 27th to the 29th, swell. 28th, the Fed.
Line two, if price jumps, I will blank. Line three, if price drops, I will blank. Line four, if nothing happens, I will blank. Line five, I'll only change my mind if blank. Now, fill that in before Tuesday, not on Tuesday.
And if you want help building rules like these into a proper system for your whole portfolio, the Altcoin Pro Accelerator link is at the very top of the description. And if you want to see what I do if XRP drop 30% overnight, I've done a full hour-by-hour plan. It's right here on screen for you to watch. Now, thank you very much for watching. If you like this video, hit that like button.
Hit the subscribe button. Press that bell to be notified of our next videos. As always, you know what to do. I see you at the top. Stay bullish.
Peace.
Education and commentary only, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile and you can lose money. Do your own research and speak to a qualified advisor before making investment decisions. Figures and quotes are as reported in the video on October 25, 2026 and may have changed since.
