Binance Hack: Who Pays the $6.3 Billion and What It Means for XRP

our security measures were not was not able to stop that withdrawal uh which costed us 7,770 BTC. So which come to roughly around 40 million US uh about now um so we do have the funds uh we do have the SEU funds set up before so we will use that to cover it.

That was Binance's founder in May of 2019. 7,000 Bitcoin stolen, about $40 million, and a promise will cover it. On October 30th, 2026, Binance made the same promise again. This time, it put the number at $6.3 billion. And while Binance was counting, the market was settling its own bill. $1.28 billion in bets on higher prices closed by force in a single day, completely liquidated.

If you hold XRP on Binance or anywhere else, both of those numbers just landed on you. One is what Binance lost and says it will pay back. The other is what traders lost and nobody pays that back. And there's a third number underneath both, the one that usually tells you what happens next. So, here's the question for the rest of this video.

Who's actually paying for the $6.3 billion? And what did XRP do the last nine times the market felt like this? So, if you're feeling bullish, like this video and smash that subscribe button. We're on our way to 400,000 subscribers and you can help us get there. And if you're going to become the first millionaire in your family tree, confirm that by commenting 777 down below.

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All right, bull runners. Ryan Huggin here, aka WinW with Ryan. Welcome back to the channel. So, go back 5 weeks first to September 22nd, 2026. There's an index that scores how the crypto market feels from zero extreme fear to 100 extreme greed.

And on September 22nd, it read 78 extreme greed. XRP closed the day at $157. When people feel like that, some of them don't just buy, they borrow to buy more. That part matters later. And the biggest exchange is Binance.

It's been hacked before. In 2019, it was $40 million. In October 2022, a bridge on Binance's own blockchain was hit for about $570 million. And here's what CZ told CNBC.

But the software code is never bug free. So, but in the blockchain world, whenever there's a bug, you could result in very large losses. Uh, this is one of the cases that happened, but we were able to minimize quite quite a lot of the damage to less than 100 million. Now,

software is never bug-free. So, the question was never whether Binance gets hit again. It was how big and who pays. On the evening of October 29th, UTC, money started leaving Binance's wallets that Binance never sent. At 9:29 p.m., Binance said it was looking into a potential security issue.

User funds are completely safe. But by 12:13 a.m. on October 30th, all deposits and withdrawals are temporarily suspended. So for anybody with any coins on Binance, the door was shut. You could watch the price, but you couldn't take anything out. And the price moved.

XRP was at $1.28 28 at 8:00 p.m. UTC on October 29th and by 2:47 a.m. it was at $1.22. Bitcoin went under $77,000. Therefore, the people who'd borrowed to buy were the first to get hurt. Here's what happens to a borrowed bet when the price falls.

It's called a liquidation. The higher the leverage, the closer the liquidation price is to your entry price. If the market moves against you and hits that price, [music] your position will be forcibly closed by the exchange to recover the borrowed funds. This happens when your account no longer has enough margin to maintain the position. In most cases, you'd lose almost all your balance, which isn't fun.

Forcibly closed by the exchange. You don't get a vote. You don't get to wait it out. The post going around said over 1.3 billion in 5 hours. Coin Glass, the site that tracks these, showed 1.28 28 billion over the full 24 hours.

When I read it at 2:45 a.m. UTC on October 30th, close, but a day, not 5 hours. $235,989 traders for XRP alone. $36.5 million in bets on higher prices were closed against $1.3 million in bets on lower prices. And here's the part that stuck with me. Half of all of it, 50.3% happened on Binance, the same exchange that had switched withdrawals off. You couldn't take your coins out, but the exchange could still close your trade.

But all night, nobody had Binance's number. The headline said 5.7 billion, somebody else's count. Then on October 30th, Binance posted this. The estimated total impact sits at around $6.3 billion. Binance will cover all losses from the SEFU fund and the company's funds.

And how did it happen? Binance says it may involve a compromised dev ops engineers laptop. One person's work computer, not the wallets themselves. Binance says it found no evidence of any wallet private key leak. Most people read a post like that and then they close the tab and then they leave their coins wherever they were.

And if you'd rather know exactly where yours sit and who can switch them off, that's what we map out with our clients inside of SGS at altcoin pro and it's the first link in the description below. Go check that out. So Binance says it will pay but with what first how big a bill that is. The biggest exchange hack before this was by bit in February 2025. The FBI puts that at about $1.5 billion.

Binance's own estimate is more than four times that. Now what Binance got back about 3 billion was frozen onchain so far much of it by the companies behind the dollar coins stable coins that were taken tether and circle and RLUSD among them so that leaves about $3.3 billion Binance doesn't have frozen now the fund SEFU is the money Binance set aside for exactly this issue in February 2026 Binance said Safu now holds 15,000 Bitcoin I read that wallet on October 30th, it's still 15,000 Bitcoin. Nothing has left it. That's $77,460 per Bitcoin. About a third of what's still missing.

So, the rest comes from the company funds. That's not me guessing. That's Binance's own sentence. But the sentence is where 2019 and 2026 stopped looking alike. And I know what you're probably thinking.

Binance covered in 2019. It'll cover it now. This is just noise. And it might. But here's what it said.

In 2019, Binance will use the SEFU fund to cover this incident in full. In 2019, the fund alone was enough. On October 30th, 2026, by Binance's own numbers, it isn't. Binance has the money elsewhere. DeFi Llama tracked about $145 billion of assets at Binance on October 29th.

They're loaded and $6.3 billion is about 4% of that. But we'll know it's paid when Binance publishes the updated proof of reserves that it promised, not before. So that's Binance's bill. Now the markets Cointelegraph posted that the fear and greed index had slid to 35, its lowest level since August. That's Coin Market Cap's version.

The original from the alternative, which goes back to 2018, read 30 on October 30th. fear 5 weeks after 78. And here's what people do with that number.

Somebody was saying this is a this is like this is a time to buy. I'm not going to sit here and be like everybody time to buy. Buy this buy [snorts] this FUD. Buy the fear. I'm not sitting here saying that.

I'm presenting this news in real time. It is too early to tell. Buy the fear. His chat was saying it. He wouldn't.

And another channel the same night said this. Anything can happen for Q4. And this is usually when we see a bottom. Usually when we see a bottom, that's the belief. Fear is where you buy because that's where the bottom is.

But Coin Gecko, which explains this index on its own channel, asks the obvious question. On the other hand, when the fear and greed index value is low, it may imply that the cryptocurrency price will rise, which may be a good buying opportunity. Now, on to the big question. Does the fear and greed index provide reliable insights into the future price of cryptocurrency? Short answer, no.

Short answer, no. So, I didn't take anybody's word for it, theirs included. I checked. I took the index's whole history and XRP's daily closing price since 2019. And then I found every time the index went from extreme greed 75 or higher to 30 or lower inside of 2 months, exactly what just happened.

It's happened nine times before October 30th, 2026. And all nine times XRP closed lower at some point in the following 30 days. The smallest further drop was 5.3%. The middle one was 17% and in April of 2021 it was another 42%. So the day the index hit 30 was never the bottom, not once in nine.

But don't take the other half wrong either. 30 days later, XRP was higher in three of the nine. In June of 2024, it was up 26%. So fear at 30 hasn't meant sell. It's meant the low came after the fear, not on the day of it.

And I'll be honest about what this is. Nine times is a small number. Four of them were in one year, 2021. And the next one doesn't have to look like any of them. It's history, not a forecast.

So what's next in order? First, Binance's post-mortem. Binance says it will share a detailed technical post-mortem once the facts are verified. And that's where the $6.3 billion either holds or moves. Second, the door.

Deposits and withdrawals were suspended on October 30th. Watch for the day they reopen and how fast people pull their coins out when they do. Third, the updated proof of reserves. That's the receipt that says covered actually happened. And under all three, the fear number.

It read 30 on October 30th. If the last nine times are any gauge, the hard part isn't the day that it gets crazy. It's the 30 days after. So, go back to 2019. CZ on a live stream, $40 million, and a fund that covered it in full.

On October 30th, 2026, it's the same promise and a number more than 150 times bigger from a fund that holds about a third of what's still missing. Binance says it has the money. What nobody can tell you yet is how long the door stays shut. Binance put its number on the hack, $6.3 billion. The market put its number on fear, 30.

And nine times out of nine, XRP's lower price came after the fear, not on the day of it. So tell me in the comment section, did you buy, sell, or do nothing on October 29th? One word down below. Everything in this video came off of a record that you can check. Binance's own post, a wallet anyone can read, and nine dates in an index that goes back to 2018.

The headline said 5.7 billion. Binance said 6.3. The record said the funds hold 1.16. That's the work knowing where your coins sit. Who can switch them off and what you'll do on the next night like this one.

But you need to know that before it comes. And that is what we help our clients do inside of SGS system at Altcoin Pro. So it's for people holding $50,000 or more in crypto that are serious about it and have never had anybody walk them through it with them. If you're not there yet, then keep watching these videos. They're free and we're not going to stop making it.

And if your spouse has something to say about your money you're investing in, bring them on the call with you. It's very important. The first link in the description down below gets you a free appointment booked right away. Crypto carries risk and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. These videos are educational purposes only, not financial advice.

And you know what to do. Stay bullish. I'll see you at the top.