XRP and Bearableguy123's YES Chart: Prediction or Celebration?

One of the most shared images in the Bearableguy123 “589” riddle is a price chart with two spikes, each stamped with the word YES. Many in the community treat it as proof that the account saw an XRP move coming. In episode 3 of its series on the riddle, Bullrunners, with host Ryan Huggins, set out to test that claim against the actual price data.

The answer matters for any XRP holder who has seen these collages passed around as prophecy. The video finds that the chart is real XRP price action from April 2018, but that the picture’s own time labels show it was drawn after the move. In the host’s words, the YES “wasn’t a call. It was a cheer.”

What does the YES chart actually show?

The chart shows short-interval price candles across April 11, 12 and 13, with a YES over each of two sharp spikes. Along the bottom are date and time labels that change every few hours, so this is a close-up view, not a daily chart. Each candle covers a short slice of a day: green means price closed that slice higher than it opened, red means lower.

The first YES sits over the label for 11 at night on April 11. The second sits on the evening of April 12.

What the panel leaves out is just as important. There is no year, no coin name and no price scale. The video compares it to “a receipt with the top torn off.” That leaves three questions to check before drawing any conclusions: which year, which coin, and when the picture was made.

Which year matches the chart?

Only 2018 fits, according to the video. The host compared XRP’s daily price on April 11 to 13 across five years:

Year	April 11 to 13 pattern
2017	Mixed and small moves
2018	All three days green
2019	All three days red
2020	Mixed and small moves
2021	Large move, but it started on the 12th

What did those days do to $10,000 in XRP?

XRP rose about 30% over those three days. Per the video, it closed around $0.49 on April 10, 2018 and around $0.64 on April 13. Taking $10,000 bought at the April 10 close:

1. End of April 11: about $10,970
2. End of April 12: about $12,780
3. End of April 13: about $12,970

Most of the gain came on the 11th and 12th. The 13th barely moved. The run also kept going: by April 15, the same $10,000 was near $13,900, so the YES days were the start of the move, not all of it.

The whole market rose that week. The video says $10,000 in Bitcoin on April 10 was worth about $11,550 by April 13. XRP rose roughly twice as hard.

Do the YES stamps line up with real price jumps?

Yes, closely, when the chart is read as XRP priced in Bitcoin rather than in dollars. Daily candles are a blunt tool, so the host pulled Bitstamp’s half-hour XRP/BTC candles from April 11 to the morning of April 13, 2018.

On that data, the two largest half-hour jumps of the whole stretch fall at:

• 11 p.m. on April 11, in UTC, the time standard exchanges use (4 p.m. on the US West Coast)
• About 9:30 p.m. UTC on April 12

Those are the two spots under the YES stamps. The first half hour alone took XRP from about $0.51 to about $0.54, turning $10,000 into roughly $10,600.

Even the dip between the spikes matches. On the morning of April 12, Bitcoin jumped sharply, so XRP priced in Bitcoin dipped, and the collage shows the same dip. The video says other years don’t fit this way. In 2021, for example, the biggest half-hour jumps came early on April 13.

The host calls this “a strong match, not a signed confession,” because it relies on one exchange and a picture with no price labels.

Was the chart made before or after the move?

After. This is the central finding of the video. The candles on the panel don’t stop at the second YES. They continue into the early morning of April 13, roughly 10 more hours of trading by the time labels. A chart can’t show candles that haven’t happened yet. As the video puts it, like a dash cam, it “only shows you the road you already drove.”

So this picture cannot be the prediction. The host acknowledges that an earlier version could have been posted somewhere before the move, but says no one has ever produced one, and the archive research behind the series doesn’t show one. The fair reading, according to the video, is that the account was watching XRP live that week and celebrated.

That still has some value for anyone studying the riddle. It ties the panel to real dates and means it can’t be older than the morning of April 13, 2018.

Was Ripple part of the MoneyGram and Walmart deal?

No. MoneyGram’s filing with the SEC, which anyone can pull from the agency’s website, says MoneyGram and Walmart signed a new agreement on March 13, 2018. The attached press release, dated April 3, launched Walmart2World, a way to send money from US Walmart stores to MoneyGram locations in 200 countries. The filing mentions neither Ripple nor XRP.

The Ripple connection is separate and earlier. On January 11, 2018, Ripple and MoneyGram announced a pilot using XRP for cross-border payments, dated on Ripple’s own site.

The community also says Bearableguy123 posted a list of MoneyGram partners with an arrow pointing at Walmart in January 2018. Nobody has a dated copy of that post, so the video keeps it labeled as a community claim. The host warns against letting a real filing and a rumor about a picture get merged into one story.

Do Walmart = 101 and Castle = 102 mean anything?

They are a coincidence of about the size chance would predict, according to the video. Using a reverse alphabet code where Z is 1 and A is 26:

• Walmart adds up to 101. April 11, 2018 was day 101 of the year.
• Castle adds up to 102. April 12 was day 102.

To test how unusual that is, the host ran the 19 lore words from the series’ research table through four different codes. Pure chance would produce about one word landing on day 101, 102 or 103. The test found two. The video calls this “a nice bonus, not a miracle.”

A rule from the previous episode still applies: a cipher match only counts if the artwork or a dated post gives the word a reason to be there. Walmart had real news that month but no dated post from the account. The castle artwork appears later, in a Christmas post. So both matches are labeled “garnish.”

The miss nobody screenshots

The archive also contains misses. Around May 21, 2018, the account’s timeline shows another batch of images. Anyone who read every picture as a buy signal would have bought that day. By May 24, $10,000 in XRP was worth about $9,270, and Bitcoin fell even harder.

One more documented event from that spring: on March 28, 2018, Ripple and its executives gave $29 million to DonorsChoose, a site where public school teachers request classroom supplies. The gift is documented. The claim that the account’s pictures of children predicted it is not, and the next episode is set to examine it.

How to sort riddle claims: the four-label framework

The most useful part of the video is its method for keeping evidence separate. Every claim gets one of four labels:

Label	What it means	Examples from this episode
Documented	Verifiable from dated records or price data	XRP from about $0.49 to $0.64, April 10 to 13, 2018; the panel’s time labels running past both YES stamps; the MoneyGram filing; the January 2018 Ripple and MoneyGram pilot; the DonorsChoose gift
Reading	A strong interpretation that fits the data but isn’t proven	The chart is XRP priced in Bitcoin on UTC, from one exchange
Cipher garnish	Number-code matches with no dated reason to exist	Walmart = 101, Castle = 102
Community claim	Stories with no dated source	The Walmart arrow post; the children’s pictures as early calls

What is not supported, per the video, is the idea that this chart predicted anything. The guiding rule is “receipts over prophecy”: a claim counts as a call only if there is a dated post from before the event.

What to watch next

The series continues with episode 4, which will test which of the account’s pictures, including the children’s images and MoneyGram references, carry dates from before the related news and which were linked afterward. Episode 5 is set to cover the castle artwork.

The host has asked anyone with a dated copy of the YES chart from before April 11, 2018 to share it. Until that turns up, the documented record points one way: the chart captured a real XRP move and was made after it happened. When someone presents a collage as proof of foresight, the first thing to check is the date it was posted.