XRP and Larry Fink's 10-Day Warning: What Missing the Best Days Cost
Larry Fink says missing 10 market days nearly halves stock returns. Bullrunners ran the same test on five years of XRP prices. Here is what it showed.

Key takeaways
- In the video's back-test, $10,000 in XRP held for five years to May 24, 2026 grew to about $14,000, but missing the 10 best days left about $1,250.
- According to the video, XRP's best and worst days tended to cluster: four of the 10 best days landed within two weeks of one of the 10 worst.
- The video says several of XRP's best days, including the Ripple court ruling on July 13, 2023, arrived during periods of fear that no one could have scheduled.
- Holding is not magic: entry point matters, and $10,000 put in at the start of January 2018 was worth about $6,700 by May 2026, according to the video.
- The video suggests writing down two numbers in advance: the share of your crypto you won't touch on bad days, and the specific reason that would lead you to sell some.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says an investor who was out of the stock market for just 10 days over 25 years would have seen an 11% annual return fall to about 6%. A Bullrunners video ran a similar test on XRP. Over five years to May 2026, $10,000 held throughout became about $14,000, but missing XRP’s 10 best days left about $1,250.
For XRP holders, the point is not that holding always wins. According to the video, several of XRP’s biggest up days arrived in the middle of fear, right next to some of its biggest down days. The video argues that anyone who sold on nerves and planned to buy back “once it’s safe” risked missing the moves that made up much of the gain. Its lesson is about deciding in advance what you will do, not about holding forever.
What did Larry Fink actually say?
Larry Fink said an investor who put money into the S&P 500 and left it alone for 25 years would have earned about 11% a year compounded, in his words for doing nothing while enjoying life. He made the comments to Francine Lacqua of Bloomberg Television on the sidelines of the Berlin Global Dialogue, in an interview released on October 21, 2026.
He then gave the other side. According to Fink, an investor who was out of the market for just 10 days earned about 6% a year instead. Someone who missed the top 40 days out of roughly 6,300 days ended up with a negative return.
The video stresses the context. Most of the interview was about money and data center construction. Fink was talking about shares, and the video says he did not mention XRP, Ripple or Bitcoin. His remark that he does not care about day-to-day market moves came when he was asked whether BlackRock was preparing for the future. He described the firm as the world’s largest retirement manager, focused on the long term.
The video also notes that, when checked on October 23, 2026, BlackRock did not run an XRP fund and had not filed for one. Nothing in the test implies BlackRock backs XRP. It simply applies Fink’s arithmetic to XRP’s price history.
How was the XRP test done?
The host used XRP’s daily closing prices from CoinMetrics, a crypto data firm, covering the five years up to May 24, 2026. That is 1,826 days. According to the video, May 24, 2026 is as far as the firm’s free data goes. The test assumed $10,000 invested at the start, then removed the best (or worst) days to see what was left. All figures below are the host’s own calculations.
| Scenario (five years to May 24, 2026) | $10,000 became about |
|---|---|
| Held every day | $14,000 |
| Missed the single best day | $8,100 |
| Missed the 5 best days | $3,100 |
| Missed the 10 best days | $1,250 |
| Missed the 10 worst days | $92,000 |
| Missed both the 10 best and 10 worst days | $8,200 |
Ten days is roughly half of one percent of the days in the period. In the video’s test, missing just one day turned a gain into a loss.
Why is XRP so much harsher than the S&P 500?
According to the video, XRP is harsher than the S&P 500 because a single coin moves far more than a basket of 500 large companies. The video explains that crypto rarely climbs in smooth lines. A large share of a coin’s move can arrive in a handful of sessions, often after weeks or months of going nowhere. When a coin can rise by a fifth or more in a day, missing that day leaves a hole the patient months either side may not fill.
When did XRP’s best days happen?
According to the video, several of XRP’s best days in the test came when the news was loudest and many holders had already sold.
- July 13, 2023. The biggest day in the video’s test was the day Judge Torres ruled in the SEC’s case against Ripple that XRP sold on exchanges to ordinary buyers was not offered as an investment contract. The SEC had sued Ripple in December 2020, and some US exchanges stopped trading XRP during the case. On CoinMetrics figures cited in the video, XRP closed up about 73%, from around 47 cents to around 81 cents. The video argues that many holders who had grown tired or worried over two and a half years had sold before the ruling and missed the move.
- March 2, 2025. The second-best day in the test came when President Trump posted that a US crypto reserve would include XRP, along with Solana and Cardano. On CoinMetrics figures, XRP closed up about 34%. The next day it closed down about 18%, which the video says was one of the 10 worst days in the period. XRP fell harder than Bitcoin that day.
The March 2025 pair shows the problem clearly. Selling in a panic on the Monday caught the drop. Waiting on the sidelines over the weekend missed the jump. As the video puts it, neither date was on anyone’s calendar.
Why not just avoid the worst days instead?
Avoiding XRP’s worst days would help as much as catching the best ones, but the video says the two tend to arrive together. In the video’s test, dodging the 10 worst days would have turned $10,000 into about $92,000. That is the outcome every trader chases.
The video lists examples of how tightly the extremes cluster:
- February 5, 2026: XRP closed down about 19%. February 6: up about 20%.
- November 9, 2022, as the FTX exchange collapsed: down about 19%. November 10: up about 20%.
- Four of the 10 best days landed within two weeks of one of the 10 worst.
According to the test, a trader who avoided the 10 worst days but stepped out and back in at the wrong moments, and so also missed the 10 best, would have ended with about $8,200. That is less than simply holding.
Some big days are not even real. On November 13, 2023, a registration for an “iShares XRP Trust” appeared on Delaware’s state business register. People read it as BlackRock launching an XRP fund, and the price jumped. BlackRock said it had not filed anything, and reports at the time said the jump faded within hours. Buying that headline meant buying a story that was not true.
What are the limits of the hold-and-wait lesson?
The video warns against stretching Fink’s message too far, and gives three limits.
Holding is not magic. In the test, five years of holding turned $10,000 into about $14,000, roughly 7% a year, with some severe stretches along the way. According to the video, $10,000 invested at the start of January 2018, near the top of that bubble, was worth about $6,700 by May 2026. Entry point and price paid matter. For a related comparison, see what $10,000 in XRP versus Bitcoin returned depending on the entry point.
One coin is not 500 companies. Fink’s figures describe a diversified index. The video argues that if a single asset can fall 19% in a day, the amount you hold has to be one you can live with on that day. Otherwise, it says, you are likely to sell at the worst moment, whatever your intentions.
Selling is not always wrong. The video says taking some profit, rebalancing, or needing money for something real are all valid reasons. The costly kind of selling, according to the video, is the panicked kind: selling because of how you feel that afternoon, then waiting for a feeling of safety that never arrives.
The two-number plan
The video’s practical tool is simple. It suggests writing down two numbers before the market gets loud:
- Your untouchable share. The part of your crypto you decide not to touch through bad days.
- Your sell trigger. A reason decided in advance that would lead you to sell some. That could be a price, a share of your savings, or a specific thing you need the money for.
If a sale matches neither number, the video suggests it is probably nerves talking, and worth sleeping on. The idea is close to splitting holdings into a core pile and a working pile, and to having a written plan for when XRP drops 30%.
The people who manage to sit through a day that drops by a fifth, according to the video, are not braver than everyone else. They decided beforehand what they would do and held an amount that let them stick to it.
What to check next
The video closes by asking viewers whether they have ever sold just before a big jump. One way to use the test is to look back at any sale made after a sharp drop and ask whether it matched a reason written down in advance, or a feeling on the day.
The test also gives a sense of scale. It shows daily moves of around 19% in both directions, which the video uses to make the case that position size should be something a holder could leave alone through a week like that. Finally, the November 2023 Delaware registration is a reminder to verify any sudden “big news” headline at the source, especially one claiming a major firm has filed for an XRP product. Some big days are built on stories that turn out to be false.
Frequently asked questions
What did Larry Fink say about missing the best market days?
In a Bloomberg Television interview released October 21, 2026, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said S&P 500 investors who stayed invested for 25 years earned about 11% a year compounded. He said being out of the market for just 10 days cut that to about 6%, and missing the top 40 days out of 6,300 produced a negative return.
What happens to XRP returns if you miss the 10 best days?
According to the video's test of CoinMetrics daily closing prices over five years to May 24, 2026, $10,000 held throughout became about $14,000. Missing the 10 best days turned it into about $1,250, and missing just the single best day left about $8,100.
What was XRP's best day in the five-year test?
According to the video's test, it was July 13, 2023, the day Judge Torres ruled in the SEC's case against Ripple that XRP sold on exchanges to ordinary buyers was not offered as an investment contract. On CoinMetrics figures cited in the video, XRP closed up about 73% that day, from roughly 47 cents to about 81 cents.
Couldn't you just avoid XRP's worst days instead?
In the video's test, dodging the 10 worst days would have grown $10,000 to about $92,000. But the video says the best and worst days came close together, and someone who missed both the 10 worst and the 10 best would have ended with about $8,200, less than simply holding.
Does BlackRock have an XRP ETF?
According to the video, when checked on October 23, 2026, BlackRock did not run an XRP fund and had not filed for one. A November 2023 'iShares XRP Trust' registration in Delaware was not a BlackRock filing, and the price jump it caused faded within hours.
Full video transcript
From the video's captions, lightly formatted. Captions can mishear names and numbers, so check figures against the article above.
If you invested in the S&P over the last 25 years and you went on vacation for 25 years and you learned how to be the best rock climber or the best whatever you you you wish, you would earn 11% compounded return. 11% doing nothing by enjoying your life.
The best rock climber in the world. That was Larry Fink, the boss of BlackRock, the biggest money manager on the planet. He was on Bloomberg Television in an interview put out on the 21st of October that just happened a couple of weeks ago. Put your money into America's biggest 500 companies, leave it there for 25 years and then by his figures you'd have made about 11% a year for doing nothing at all. And then he gave the other side of that.
Let's check it out.
If you were if you believed you were smarter than the market and you were out of the market for 10 days, just 10 days, your return was down to 6%. If you were out of the market for the 40 top days out of 6,300 days, you would have negative return.
So Larry Fink says missing just 10 days nearly halves your return. 11% a year down to six. And if you own XRP, BlackRock's boss showed at the wrong time really cost. So I checked XRP against the same test. Missed XRP's 10 best days over 5 years and $10,000 turned into about 1250.
Now keep the first thing in the description in mind guys because it's going to be a really fun video, but I will explain what that link does before the 5-minute mark of the video. If setting out of scary patches ever cost you the good part that came straight after it, you'll want to hear about this, right? So Fink, he was talking about shares, not crypto. He didn't mention XRP, Ripple or even Bitcoin in the whole interview, but his numbers were being shared on social media by the 22nd of October because they describe a habit plenty of us fell into. And if we're truthful guys, nearly all of us have felt that pull.
The price drops hard, the headlines get loud and a little voice says sell it. Wait for the things to settle or buy back once it's safe. It feels sensible, right? It feels like being careful and the trouble is that nobody rings a bell when it's safe. And the biggest days have a habit of turning up while we're actually waiting for one.
So let me be fair to the whole interview because the 11% line wasn't the headline. He was speaking to Francine Lacqua on the sidelines of of the Berlin Global Dialogue, a big meeting of business and political leaders. Most of it was about money and building data centers. In mid-October, Fink had warned that a pause on building could push America into recession. And then, like we actually asked him if the country was really that dependent.
He said it was, right? And but when she asked was BlackRock getting ready for the future, this is where he went.
We're the largest retirement manager in the world. We focus more on the long term. We're not focusing on the day-to-day. I don't care what the markets are doing. I don't focus on the ups and downs at all.
I feel I think it's real noise.
He doesn't care what the markets are doing then. That's easy to say when you run a firm that size. It's a lot harder when it's your own savings flashing red on your phone at 11:00 at night. And to be clear, when I checked on the 23rd of October 2026, BlackRock didn't run an XRP fund and hadn't filed for one. Now, whatever you may have seen on social media, so nothing here is BlackRock's backing XRP.
It's simply his sum running our coin. And as always, it's not financial advice, guys. Please do your own research. Like if you're bullish, and let's get into it. Now, this is where the first link in the description comes into play, right?
Because it goes straight to the problem we just talked about. I'm not going to tell you to buy any tokens on this video cuz there may be way better opportunities for you, and you need to go and check yourself. The point is to have settled before the market gets loud on how much you're holding and what would make you add or trim them. These are questions that you should know and know the answer to and how much of it you could leave alone through a horrible week. Very few of us put that on paper and know the answer.
So, when a big swing arrives, the headlines end up deciding for us what we do. Now, our old coin pro course fixes all of that. It walks you through putting a proper plan together so you're not jumping in and out on nerves. Opening the first link in the description could literally change your life, guys. All you got to do is fill in a short form, book your free 15-minute call, and one of the team's going to go through your own strategy with you.
And they'll talk about your situation. Everyone's different. If you're watching this on your phone, tap more and the link is going to come out straight away for you, all right? Do it before the next big swing because it's far easier to think clearly beforehand than in the middle of the days where we are a bit worried. All right, sort it out and let's get to it.
So, here's how I did it. I took XRP's daily closing price from CoinMetrics, crypto data firm, and for the 5 years up to the 24th of May 2026, which is as far as their free data goes. That's 1,826 days. Now, if you put $10,000 in at the start and just held it, you'd end up with about 14,000. That's not a spectacular 5 years, and we'll come back to that, but take out the single best day, just one.
You'd have about 8,100, right? And you'd have gone from gain to a loss because you miss one day. Take out the five best days and you'd have about 3,100. Take out the 10 best days and your $10,000 turned into 1,250, right? 10 days, that's that's about half of 1% of the days.
So, think some doesn't just hold. For XRP, it's far harsher cuz XRP moves so much more than a basket of big American companies. Now, when a coin can rise by a fifth or more in a day, missing that day leaves a hole you may never climb out of. Now, why is it so lopsided? Well, because crypto doesn't tend to climb in smooth, steady lines.
A big share of a coin whole move can come in a small handful of sessions, often after weeks or months of going nowhere. So, if you're out for those few sessions, then all the patient months either side don't make up for it. And here's the part that matters. Several of those best days weren't quiet, ordinary days, right? They came when the news was at the wildest and when plenty of people just sold.
The biggest one was actually the 13th of July 2023, and that was the day Judge Torres ruled in the case the SEC brought against Ripple. All right, the XRP sold on the exchange to ordinary buyers wasn't offered as an investment contract. You probably know that by now, for sure. The SEC had sued Ripple back in 2020 in December, and for 2 and 1/2 years the case hung over the coin. Some American exchanges actually stopped trading it altogether while it went on.
So, by the summer 2023, a lot of holders were simply worn out. I for sure was burned out. And by the close that day, on Coin Metrics figures, XRP had jumped about 73%. Now, here's Fox Business a few days later.
That's off its highs. I mean, it shot up dramatically.
From about 47 cents to about 81 cents on the 13th of July 2023 alone. And think about who missed it. Plenty of holders had sold over the years of that court case because they were tired of waiting or scared where it might end. They weren't wrong to be worried, but they weren't in the seats when the verdict landed. Now, the second best day on the list is a great one to learn from because of what happened next.
On the 2nd of March 2025, President Trump posted a crypto reserve for the United States would include XRP along with Solana and Cardano. CNBC covered it the next morning, so check this out.
He said in January, he says that this new national crypto reserve will include Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a trio of high volatility tokens, Solana, XRP, and Cardano.
On CoinMetrics figures, XRP closed that day up to about 34%. And the very next day, it gave a big chunk of it back. Now, by the evening of the 3rd of March, CNBC was reporting this.
Bitcoin retreating from its weekend highs today, down more than 8%. That after President's uh the President's comments about a strategic crypto reserve sent prices soaring on Sunday.
And XRP fell harder than Bitcoin did. Now, that day it closed down about 18%, which on those figures makes it one of the 10 worst days of the whole years. So, one of the best days and one of the worst days sat right next to each other. And if you sold in a panic on the Monday, you'd have caught the drop. If you'd waited on the sidelines all weekend, you'd have missed the jump.
The market didn't give anybody a tidy moment to just step in and then step out. That's not how it works, right? Now, there's a fair question probably being thought about, and I'm going to ask it right now rather than pretend it's not in the air. If missing the best day hurts that much, surely missing the worst day helps just as much. Yes, it does.
On the same figures, if you somehow dodge the 10 worst days, your $10,000 would have grown to about 92,000, and that's the dream every trader's chasing. The problem is that the worst days and the best days come in together. On the 5th of February 2026, XRP closed down about 19%. On the 6th of February, it closed up about 20. Now, in November 2022, as the FTX exchange was collapsing, it fell about 19% on the 9th, then rose about 20 on the 10th.
Four of the 10 best days in those 5 years landed within 2 weeks of one of the 10 worst. So, suppose you were good enough to miss the 10 worst days, but you jumped out and back at the wrong moments. Well, you've then missed the best 10 ones, too. You'd have ended up with about 8,200, less than if you simply sat there and done nothing. And sometimes, the big days isn't even real.
On the 13th of November 2023, a filing for the called an iShares XRP Trust turned up on a state business register in Delaware. People took it as BlackRock launching the XRP fund, the price jumped, and then BlackRock said it don't filed anything. Reports at the time said the price gave the jump back within hours. So, anybody who bought on that headline hoping to catch a big day was completely buying a story that wasn't true. Now, before we finish, I want to be straight with you because Finks message can be stretched too far.
First, holding isn't magic. Those 5 years turned 10,000 into about 14,000. That works out at roughly 7% a year, which is decent, but it came with some truly horrible stretches along the way. And if you'd bought at the start of January 2018, near the top of that famous bubble, and held through to May 2026, your 10,000 would have been worth about 6,700. When you start and what you paid matters so much.
Second, think some is for a spread of 500 big companies. A single coin is a very different thing. If one asset can fall 19% in a day, then to be holding an amount that you can live with on that day. Or you sell at the worst moment, however good your intentions were. And third, none of this says you should never sell.
Taking some profit, rebalancing, or needing the money for something real are all perfectly good reasons, right? The costly kind of selling is the panicked kind, where we sell because of how we feel that afternoon and then wait for a feeling of safety that quite never arrives. Now, one simple thing that helps is to write down two numbers. The first is the part of your crypto you decide not to touch through the bad days. The second is the reason decided in advance that would make you sell some, whether that's a price, a share of your savings, or something you need money for.
Now, if a sale doesn't match either of those, it's probably the nerves talking, so it's worth sleeping on it. So, the honest lesson from Think, run on XRP, isn't hold forever, no matter what. It's this: decide how much you hold and what would make you change it, well ahead of time, and then the loud days don't get to decide for you. Here's what strikes me most about that list. Hardly any of those 10 best days were on anybody's calendar.
Nobody knew the date of the ruling in advance, and nobody knew a post was coming that Sunday. They just arrived, usually right in the middle of a lot of fear, and the only people who got them were the ones who were holding when they came. Now, Larry Fink put it in his own words, 11% doing nothing by enjoying your life. For a coin like XRP, that might be the hardest kind of nothing there is, and it means sitting through days that drop by a fifth, without knowing whether the next one will give it back or more. People who manage it are not braver than the rest of us.
Usually, they just decide beforehand what they do and held an amount that let them stick to it. So, tell me in the comments, guys, have you ever been sold just before a big jump? I think a lot of us have a day like that somewhere in our history. Subscribe, and the next famous money rule that does its rounds will get tested against XRP's own price history, too. Guys, crypto carries risk, and past results are no guarantee of future ones.
As always, stay bullish.
[music]
Education and commentary only, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile and you can lose money. Do your own research and speak to a qualified advisor before making investment decisions. Figures and quotes are as reported in the video on November 1, 2026 and may have changed since.


